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Musings and Meanderings
Wednesday, July 21, 2004
Read an interesting piece in Salon.com showing some interesting numbers regarding that ephemeral percentage of the US populace that will really determine who is going to be the next President.
Of course I speak of the undecided in the swing states. Note I did not call them the "so called" swing states. If we call them the swing states then we call them that, and don't need announce that we are going to call them swing states before hand. What? Oh, sorry......
Anyway this piece compared the predicted support that each candidate was getting with the actual polling numbers. Needless to say the entire piece revolves around said prediction, but the author seemed fairly sure of himself so we will give him the benefit of the doubt.
"Bush nearly matches expectations among Democrats (at 10 percent, only two points below where he should be) and Republicans (at 90 percent, only one point below expectations). But with only 34 percent support among independents, Bush is running 15 points below the objective for a Republican hoping to capture 50 percent of the national vote. Bush's task is thus to make huge inroads among an amorphous group of voters, most of whom do not align with his party.
The same poll shows Kerry with 83 percent of the Democratic vote, 6 percent of the Republican vote, and 53 percent of the independent vote. These numbers suggest that Kerry is running reasonably well -- two points better than expected among independents, three points worse than expected among Republicans, and five points worse than expected among Democrats. The latter figure should give his campaign pause, however, as Kerry should be doing better among Democrats. And it also highlights the value of a meaningful baseline. While 83 percent sounds pretty good, the baseline value informs us that Kerry is not doing as well as he should be within his own party."
Ok your brain just got hurt and your head numb. I know I had to re-read it myself a couple of times.
Here’s the quick and dirty - Bush has run himself to the end of his turf, and Kerry still has room to grow. WHY? With such an extraordinary low polling with independents, Bush's message has obviously not worked. More to the point, after coming in with the slimmest margin of victory in modern history, this administration has played like they have a mandate from the moral majority, and independents don't like that. Bush has a very difficult road ahead because he has to convince the group hardest to convince. Hence the change in tactics coming up as he blathers about all he will do in his 2nd administration. As if we can believe a word he says.
Kerry on the other hand has a problem. He is not polling well enough with the Democrats. This however is the easier road to follow, as all he has to do is appeal to the faithful. The Convention, if anyone watches it, may just shore up the "in house" support he is missing.
Anyway that’s my take on all this. It's still not a new dawn for America, but the night may be finally receding.